The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
After contracting for two quarters in a row, the Indian economy entered the positive territory with a growth of 0.4 per cent in the October-December quarter, mainly due to good performance by farm, services and construction sectors, official data showed on Friday. Trade and hotel industry registered a contraction of 7.7 per cent during the third quarter this fiscal, as the sectors continued to suffer on account of coronavirus pandemic. According to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the farm sector recorded a growth of 3.9 per cent, and the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in the quarter under review.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
The Indian economy remains on track to regain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy after official estimates on Friday put the expansion at a tempered 9.2 per cent this fiscal amid concerns over the impact of a resurgent virus on the fragile recovery. The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 9.2 per cent in April 2021 to March 2022 fiscal (FY 2021-22) given by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in its first advance estimate compares with 9.5 per cent expansion forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month. The economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in the previous financial year.
After seeing a good rise in box office collections over the first weekend, Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani had stable weekdays ahead.
Since March 2020, when the Nifty50 plummeted to 7,511 following the announcement of a nationwide lockdown, the stock market has been on an upward trajectory. Over the next four years, the major market index has delivered a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 31.5 per cent. In the past year alone, the Nifty50 has gained by 27 per cent, hitting a succession of record highs.
'it's not just youth in India who are left behind because of their inability to find jobs; nearly two-thirds of Indian women of working ages do not participate at all in the paid labour force.'
Foodgrains production in 2020-21 is projected to be a record 144.52 million tonnes, which is 0.80 per cent more than the production in 2019-20.
India's GDP is estimated to contract by a record 7.7 per cent during 2020-21 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit the key manufacturing and services segments, as per government projections released on Thursday. Amid overall decline in economic activities, some respite was provided by the agriculture sector and utility services like power and gas supply, which have been projected to post positive growth during the current fiscal ending March 2021.
India has allocated Rs 1.72 trillion, or 27.67 per cent of the total defence budget to cater to modernisation of the country's arsenal. Modern militaries spend up to 50 to 60 per cent of their total defence budget so that they go into combat with superior weaponry and equipment.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
For potato farmers in the north and wheat growers in the eastern parts -- particularly in Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha -- the recent rains could in fact be beneficial.
National security advisor Ajit Doval on Friday suggested that various central armed police forces of the country should have "jointness" and interoperability among themselves like the ongoing plan for the defence forces.
A complete ban on firecrackers in Delhi until January 1, the government's refusal to grant licences for sales in Karnataka, and restrictions in the Noida region are adversely affecting the business of manufacturers in Tamil Nadu's Sivakasi, which produces over 90 per cent of India's fireworks. According to industry players, demand has decreased by 20 per cent compared to last year. Moreover, the ban on the use of barium nitrate and the manufacturing and sale of joint fireworks is also impacting demand.
Advance estimates on Tuesday estimated nominal GDP this financial year to be slightly less than that projected in the Budget, and this would magnify fiscal deficit as a portion of GDP.
Reflecting general rise in living standard, India's per capita income is estimated to grow above Rs 60,000 per annum or over Rs 5,000 per month, said the government data.
India's problem cannot be blamed on external considerations alone.
Finance Ministry had pegged the growth at 5.7 per cent and RBI at 5.5 per cent.
The estimates are based on the feedback received from the states and validated with the information available from other sources. Production of both rice and wheat are estimated to have touched a new record. Rice output is estimated at 99.15 mt, up 2.54 per cent from previous year's output. Wheat output is estimated to be at an all-time high of 80.58 mt, up 2.55 per cent from previous year's 78.57 mt. Production of maize also rose 1.74 per cent to 19.29 mt.
Indian economy is likely to rebound with an 8.9 per cent growth in the fiscal year beginning April 2021 after economic activity showed significant improvement in the last quarter, IHS Markit said on Friday. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) on Thursday predicted that the economy will contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending in March, the worst performance in four decades.
'In India, the GenAI startup ecosystem is unfolding with remarkable speed, signalling a new era of technological advancement and investment opportunities.'
The projected gross domestic product figure for the current fiscal, as put out by the advanced estimates of the Central Statistical Organisation, is lower than the Reserve Bank of India and the finance ministry's forecasts.
The five warmest years in Indian weather history have occurred in the past 14 years -- the others being 2009, 2017 and 2010, in order of intensity.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
'Given that the economy is going through a slowdown, further downward revisions of the 2019-2020 growth estimates cannot be ruled out,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
A cultural preference for sons in India may be expressed as 'son preference' or 'daughter aversion', arising from patrilocality, patrilineality, the cost of dowry, and old-age support from sons.
But the government will present a second tranche of Supplementary Demands for Grants during the Budget session of Parliament in February, when it can seek additional spending.
The outcome of the general elections, the Morgan Stanley note says, has enough firepower to sway the markets on either side.
The pre-budget Economic Survey, which is tabled in Parliament ahead of the Union Budget to present the state of the economy and suggest policy prescriptions, quite often misses on the GDP forecast, sometimes by a significant margin. This time, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey for 2021-22 in the Lok Sabha on Monday soon after the President's address to both Houses of Parliament. She will present the Union Budget for the next financial year beginning April 1, 2022, on Tuesday.
As a percentage contributor to nominal GDP, PFCE's share was 60.1 per cent in FY23, compared with 59.6 per cent and 60.8 per cent in the two preceding fiscal years. "Although PFCE is expected to grow 7.7 per cent in FY23, we believe it is still short of a broad-based recovery. "The current consumption demand is highly skewed in favour of goods and services consumed largely by the households falling in the upper income bracket. "A broad-based consumption recovery, therefore, is still some distance away," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist with India Ratings.
Banks are likely to see their net interest margins (NIM) - broadly the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits - shrink by another 30 basis points (bps) over the next few quarters. After hitting a peak of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter (Q3) of the financial year ended March 31, 2023 (FY23), NIMs have been on a downward trajectory, touching 3.13 per cent in Q2FY24 on higher cost of funds, according to capital markets firm CARE Ratings. Banks are still grappling with the Reserve Bank of India's policy rate increases - that have made deposits costlier as the interest payable to customers has increased - and the regulatory actions on unsecured lending.
What humans have -- that no machine can mimic -- is the ability to foster positive and authentic relationships with coworkers, managers and clients, says Job Van Der Voort, CEO and co-founder of Remote.
The number of frauds in the banking sector during the first half of the current financial year has increased substantially to 14,483 cases, although the amount involved is only 14.9 per cent of the previous year's amount, according to a RBI report. The report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23, underlined the need to protect the banking system and the payments system from the risks of fraud and data breaches emanating from cyber threats. As many as 14,483 frauds were reported involving an amount of Rs 2,642 crore in the first half of current financial year, as compared to 5,396 cases (Rs 17,685 crore) in the same period a year ago.
This will be the lender's first result after its merger with HDFC Ltd, effective from July 1, and will keep analysts glued to the management's earnings growth guidance for the merged financial behemoth.
This case revolves around the establishment of clusters of Centers of Excellence (CoEs) in the state of Andhra Pradesh, with a total estimated project value of Rs 3,300 crores.
The kharif grain output is estimated to have declined 2.48 per cent to 117.96 million tonnes while the rabi grain output has remained flat at 109.92 million tonnes, according to a government release. Output has declined mainly in kharif pulses and coarse cereals while a marginal dip has been projected in the rabi wheat output.
Crosses Budget Estimate by 5.5%, govt expected it to be 4.6% of GDP for current financial year
'The UK is more of a structural problem, and that's why we're doing the restructuring.'
However, economic growth in five years of the UPA and NDA cannot be compared because of the now complex back series data, reports Indivjal Dhasmana.
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